A measurement model for real estate bubble size based on the panel data analysis : an empirical case study

摘要

Employing the fundamental value of real estate determined by the economic fundamentals,a measurement model for real estate bubble size is established based on the panel dataanalysis. Using this model, real estate bubble sizes in various regions in Japan in the late1980s and in recent China are examined. Two panel models for Japan provide results,which are consistent with the reality in the 1980s where a commercial land price bubbleappeared in most area and was much larger than that of residential land. This provides evidenceof the reliability of our model, overcoming the limit of existing literature with thismethod. The same models for housing prices in China at both the provincial and city levelsshow that contrary to the concern of serious housing price bubble in China, over-valuing inrecent China is much smaller than that in 1980s Japan.